Updating on Pog

I wrote recently that I thought it was unreasonable to give Pog a 50% chance of winning the Tour. We're now 6 stages in, with Pog in the yellow jersey, and we're past the cobbled stage that I thought was a particular risk. So lets reflect and re-evaluate!

So Pog didn't have any problems on the cobbles, but I don't think it was wrong to suspect that he would have done. If anything I think I should have been more worried that he would lose time there. We saw basically every other GC contender face some issue outside of their control. Most of them were able to limit their losses with the help of their teams. Pog conspicuously had no team mates around him for much of the action. If he had suffered a puncture, or damaged deraileur, or lost chain, or dislocated shoulder I think he would have had even more difficulties than the other riders. Nonetheless he made it through safely, so we have to increase our belief that Pog will win.

Additionally Pog has gained time on most of his near competitors today and yesterday. The time he's gained isn't yet an overwhelming advantage, and if he were a normal contender we might even worry that he is too good early and at risk of tiring before the end of the tour. But we probably don't need to pay attention to how much time Pog games. Gaining a few seconds does not make him more likely to win, because as we talked about last time, if he stays on his bike and doesn't get ill, he'll almost certainly win. It's Pog's race to lose and there is plenty of time left to do that. Generally I think we should not update the likelihood of pog winning based on him getting more time, but rather on him surviving more stages without incident. He's made it through the most dangerous stage, and so he's now more likely to win.

Polymarket for will Pog win at the time of writing

Polymarket is now on 74% to win, which feels like the right ball park, but maybe a little high. But I'm slightly biased by not really wanting Pog to win.